Monod et al, “Age groups that sustain resurging COVID-19 epidemics in the United States” Science 2021.

AJ Holbrook, CE Loeffler, SR Flaxman, MA Suchard, “Scalable Bayesian inference for self-excitatory stochastic processes applied to big American gunfire data,” Statistics and Computing 31 (1), 1-15.

E Suel, S Bhatt, M Brauer, S Flaxman, M Ezzati, “Multimodal deep learning from satellite and street-level imagery for measuring income, overcrowding, and environmental deprivation in urban areas,” Remote Sensing of Environment 257, 112339.

Hawryluk et al, “Inference of COVID-19 epidemiological distributions from Brazilian hospital data,” Journal of the Royal Society Interface 17 (172), 20200596.

Unwin, [et al…], Flaxman, “State-level tracking of COVID-19 in the United States” Nature Communications, 2020.

Flaxman, S., Mishra, S., Gandy, A. et al. “Estimating the effects of non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 in Europe.” Nature (2020).

Okell, L., Verity, R., Watson, OJ, et al. Have deaths from COVID-19 in Europe plateaued due to herd immunity? Lancet (2020). [supplementary figures.]

Lisi, Malekzadeh, Haddadi, Lau, Flaxman. “Modelling and forecasting art movements with CGANs.” Royal Society Open Science. 7: 191569, 2020.


S. Flaxman, M. Chirico, P. Pereira, C. Loeffler. ‘Scalable high-resolution forecasting of sparse spatiotemporal events with kernel methods: a winning solution to the NIJ “Real-Time Crime Forecasting Challenge,”‘ Annals of Applied Statistics, 2019.

L. Tusting, D. Bisanzio, G. Alabaster, E. Cameron, R. Cibulskis, M. Davies, S. Flaxman, H. Gibson, S. Hay, J. Knudsen, C. Mbogo, F. Okumu, K. Rust, L. von Seidlein, D. Weiss, S. Lindsay, P. Gething, and S. Bhatt, “Mapping changes in housing in Africa, 2000 to 2015,” Nature, 2019.

L. Crawford, S. Flaxman, D. Runcie, M. West, ‘Predictor Variable Prioritization in Nonlinear Models: A Genetic Association Case Study’,  Annals of Applied Statistics 2019.

Davis, Kumar, Alexandrov, Bhargava, Sahai, Flaxman, French, McGinty, “Convolutional neural networks for reconstruction of undersampled optical projection tomography data applied to in vivo imaging of zebrafish,” Journal of Biophotonics, 2019.

Jakob Runge, Peer Nowack, Marlene Kretschmer, Seth Flaxman, and Dino Sejdinovic, “Detecting causal associations in large nonlinear time series datasets”, forthcoming at Science Advances, https://arxiv.org/abs/1702.07007

Under review

Jonathan Ish-Horowicz, Dana Udwin, Seth Flaxman, Sarah Filippi, and Lorin Crawford, “Interpreting Deep Neural Networks Through Variable Importance,” https://arxiv.org/abs/1901.09839


Vision Loss Expert Group series of publications in the British Journal of Ophthalmology: Keeffe et al [2018], Kahloun et al [2018], Leasher et al [2018], Nangia et al [2018], Bourne et al [2018], with more forthcoming.

Ho Chung Leon Law, Dino Sejdinovic, Ewan Cameron, Tim CD Lucas, Seth Flaxman, Katherine Battle, Kenji Fukumizu, “Variational Learning on Aggregate Outputs with Gaussian Processes”, NeurIPS 2018.

A. Hu and S. Flaxman, “Multimodal Sentiment Analysis To Explore the Structure of Emotions”, Applied Data Science track, KDD 2018.

Law, Sutherland, Sejdinovic, Flaxman, Bayesian Approaches to Distribution Regression, AISTATS 2018.

Abbati, Tosi, Osborne, Flaxman, “AdaGeo: Adaptive Geometric Learning for Optimization and Sampling”, AISTATS 2018.

J-F Ton, S. Flaxman, D. Sejdinovic, S. Bhatt, “Spatial Mapping with Gaussian Processes and Nonstationary Fourier Features”, Spatial Statistics 2018.

S. Flaxman, R. Bourne, S. Resnikoff, P. Ackland, et al. “Global causes of blindness and distance vision impairment 1990–2020: a systematic review and meta-analysis.” Lancet Global Health 6, no. 12 (2017).

R. Bourne, S. Flaxman, T. Braithwaite, M.V. Cicinelli, A. Das, et al. “Global Prevalence of Blindness and Distance and Near Vision Impairment: Magnitude, Temporal Trends, and Projections.” Lancet Global Health.

Charles Loeffler and Seth Flaxman, “Is Gun Violence Contagious?” Journal of Quantitative Criminology [code].

Bryce Goodman and Seth Flaxman, ‘European Union regulations on algorithmic decision-making and a “right to explanation” ‘ AI Magazine, 38, no. 3 (2017): 50-57.

Seth Flaxman, Yee Whye Teh, and Dino Sedjdinovic. “Poisson intensity estimation with reproducing kernels”, AISTATS 2017, selected for oral presentation [code]. Journal version: Electronic Journal of Statistics, Vol. 11 (2017) 5081-5104.

S Bhatt, E Cameron, SR Flaxman, DJ Weiss, DL Smith, PW Gething, “Improved prediction accuracy for disease risk mapping using Gaussian Process stacked generalisation”, Journal of the Royal Society Interface.

Qinyi Zhang, Sarah Filippi, Seth Flaxman, Dino Sejdinovic, “Feature-to-Feature Regression for a Two-Step Conditional Independence Test,” UAI 2017 [code]

S. Flaxman, D. Sejdinovic, J. P. Cunningham, and S. Filippi, “Bayesian Learning of Kernel Embeddings”, Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence (UAI), 2016. [supplementary]

W. Herlands, A. Wilson, H. Nickisch, S. Flaxman, D. Neill, W. van Panhuis, E. Xing, Scalable Gaussian Processes for Characterizing Multidimensional Change Surfaces, AISTATS 2016.

S. Flaxman, S. Goel, J. Rao, Ideological Segregation and the Effects of Social Media on News Consumption, Public Opinion Quarterly.

Seth Flaxman, Daniel Neill, Alex Smola. “Gaussian Processes for Independence Tests with non-iid Data in Causal Inference.” ACM Transactions on Intelligent Systems and Technology. [code]

Unpublished manuscripts
Hyunjik Kim, Xiaoyu Lu, Seth Flaxman, and Yee Whye Teh. “Tucker Gaussian Process for Regression and Collaborative Filtering.”

Seth Flaxman, Danica J. Sutherland, Yu-Xiang Wang, and Yee Whye Teh, “Understanding the 2016 US Presidential Election using ecological inference and distribution regression with census microdata”.

Seth Flaxman and Karim Kassam, “On #agony and #ecstasy: Potential and pitfalls of linguistic sentiment analysis.”

S. Flaxman, A. Gelman, D. Neill, A. Smola, A. Vehtari, and A. G. Wilson, “Fast hierarchical Gaussian processes.”

S. Flaxman, D. Neill, A. Smola, New Space/Time Interaction Tests for Spatiotemporal Point Processes, Heinz College Working Paper series. (This was my Heinz first paper and it won the Suresh Konda award.)

Seth Flaxman, Andrew Wilson, Daniel Neill, Hannes Nickisch, and Alex Smola. “Fast Kronecker Inference in Gaussian Processes with non-Gaussian Likelihoods,” International Conference on Machine Learning 2015, Lille. [code]

Seth Flaxman, Yu-Xiang Wang, and Alex Smola. “Who supported Obama in 2012? Ecological inference through distribution regression,” KDD 2015, Best Student Paper Award. [third party code / replication]

Stevens, Bennett, Hennocq, Lu, De-Regil, Rogers, Danaei, Li, White, Flaxman, Oehrle, Finucane, Guerrero, Bhutta, Then-Paulino, Fawzi, Black, Ezzati, “Trends and mortality effects of vitamin A deficiency in children in 138 low- and middle-income countries: pooled analysis of population-based surveys,” accepted for publication in The Lancet Global Health.

J. B. Jonas, R.A. Bourne, R. A. White, S. R. Flaxman, J. Keeffe, J. Leasher, K. Naidoo, K. Pesudovs, H. Price, T. Y. Wong, S. Resnikoff, and H. R. Taylor. Visual Impairment and Blindness Due to Macular Diseases Globally: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis. American Journal of Ophthalmology Volume 158, Issue 4, Pages 808–815, October 2014.

May 2014, 98(5), issue of the British Journal of Ophthalmology has a series of articles by the Vision Loss Expert Group of the Global Burden of Disease Study.

N. J. Kassebaum, R. Jasrasaria, M. Naghavi, S. K. Wulf, N. Johns, R. Lozano, M. Regan, D. Weatherall, D. P. Chou, T. P. Eisele, S. R. Flaxman, R. L. Pullan, S. J. Brooker, and C. J. L. Murray. A systematic analysis of global anemia burden from 1990 to 2010. Blood. January 2014, 123 (5) 615-624.

R. Bourne, G. Stevens, R. A. White, J. Smith, S. Flaxman, H. Price, J. B Jonas, J. Keeffe, J. Leasher, K. Naidoo, K. Pesudovs, S. Resnikoff, H. R. Taylor. Causes of vision loss worldwide, 1990—2010: a systematic analysis. The Lancet Global Health, 11 November 2013.

G. Stevens, R.A. White, S. Flaxman, H. Price, J.B. Jonas, J. Keeffe, J. Leasher, K. Naidoo, K. Pesudovs, S. Resnikoff, H. Taylor, R. Bourne. Global Prevalence of Vision Impairment and Blindness: Magnitude and Temporal Trends, 1990-2010. Ophthalmology (2013).

Stevens GA, Finucane MM, De-Regil LM, Paciorek CJ, Flaxman SR, Branca F, Peña-Rosas JP, Bhutta ZA, Ezzati M, Global, regional, and national trends in haemoglobin concentration and prevalence of total and severe anaemia in children and pregnant and non-pregnant women for 1995–2011: a systematic analysis of population-representative data, The Lancet Global Health (2013), 1(1): 16-25

Olofin I, McDonald CM, Ezzati M, Flaxman S, Black RE, et al. Associations of Suboptimal Growth with All-Cause and Cause-Specific Mortality in Children under Five Years: A Pooled Analysis of Ten Prospective Studies. PLoS ONE 8(5): e64636. 2013.

US Burden of Disease Collaborators, The State of US Health, 1990-2010: Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors, JAMA. (2013) 310(6):591-608.

Global Burden of Disease papers in the Lancet, 2013: 400+ authors; I’m an author on the years lived with disability (YLDs), disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), and risk factors papers.

C. McDonald, I. Olofin, S. Flaxman, W. Fawzi, D. Spiegelman, L. Caulfield, R. Black, M. Ezzati, G. Danaei, The effect of multiple anthropometric deficits on child mortality: meta-analysis of individual data in ten prospective studies from developing countries, American Journal of Clinical Nutrition, 2013.

M. Mascarenhas, S. Flaxman, T. Boerma, S. Vanderpoel, G. Stevens. National, regional and global trends in infertility prevalence since 1990: a systematic analysis of 277 health surveys,” PLoS Medicine, 9(12), 2012. [I’m a co-first author.]

Gretchen A Stevens, Mariel M Finucane, Christopher J Paciorek, Seth R Flaxman, Richard A White, Abigail J Donner, Majid Ezzati, on behalf of Nutrition Impact Model Study Group (Child Growth). “Trends in mild, moderate, and severe stunting and underweight, and progress towards MDG 1 in 141 developing countries: a systematic analysis of population representative data.” The Lancet, 5 July 2012. Find out more and view interactive visualizations.

Gretchen Stevens, Seth Flaxman, Emma Brunskill, Maya Mascarenhas, Colin D. Mathers, Mariel Finucane, on behalf of the Global Burden of Disease Hearing Loss Expert Group. (2011). “Global and regional hearing impairment prevalence: an analysis of 42 studies in 29 countries,” The European Journal of Public Health 2011. [PDF]

K. Corcoran, S. Flaxman, M. Neyer, P. Scherpelz, C. Weidert, and R. Libeskind-Hadas. (2009). “Approximation Algorithms for Traffic Grooming in WDM Rings,” IEEE International Conference on Communications 2009. [PDF]

S. Flaxman, J. Huang, J. Stephenson, and X. Comtesse. (2009). “CityRank: a dynamic tool for exploring and generating new indices of cities.” Information Design Journal. 17:3, January 2010. [pdf]

S. Flaxman. (2008). “On the Optimality of Some Semide finite Programming-Based Approximation Algorithms under the Unique Games Conjecture.” Senior honors thesis in computer science. Unpublished manuscript available in Harvard University Archives. [PDF]

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